March Madness: Graduating on Time? – It’s No Lay-up, Baby!

March Madness: Graduating on Time? – It’s No Lay-up, Baby!

Andrew H. Potter, Chief Academic Officer

March Madness is wrapping up with the Final Four this weekend and the National Championship on Monday. As a casual basketball fan, my picks have historically been determined by the answers to three important questions: 1) Do I like their coach; 2) Do I like the conference they play in; 3) What are they seeded?  Basically, if the ACC or the BIG 10 performed well, my bracket tended to perform well also.

However, with my oldest daughter now a college freshman (at an ACC school no less), I wondered how the field of 64 would fare if they were simply competing on four year graduation rates as identified through CollegeData.com (i.e. graduation in 100% of institution defined time). 

Simply, what percentage of incoming freshman graduate in four years amongst the teams at the Dance?  Here’s what I found…

Overview:

• The average four year graduation rate of the field of 64 teams is 51%
• 29 of the 64 schools have four year graduation rates at or under 50%
• 19 of the 64 schools have four year graduation rates at or under 35%
• 11 of the 64 schools have four year graduation rates at or over 75%

If we were to re-seed the tournament based upon four year graduation rates:

Top “Tournament” Seeds

1-Notre Dame University (90%)

1-Princeton University (90%)

3-Duke University (87%)

3-University of Virginia (87%)

3-Vanderbilt University (87%)

3-Villanova University (87%)

7-Bucknell University (85%)

8-Northwestern University (82%)

8-University of North Carolina Chapel Hill (82%)

10-Univerity of Southern California (77%)

The Final Four:

Looking at the current regional seeding of the 2017 tournament through the lens of four year graduation rates, the final four would include:

• Representing the East = Villanova or Virginia
• Representing the West = Notre Dame or Princeton
• Representing the Midwest = University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
• Representing the South = University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

The national championship would be waged between Notre Dame/Princeton and UNC Chapel Hill, with either Notre Dame or Princeton squeaking out a victory by eight percentage points.

Lessons Learned:

If you are like me, the NCAA Tournament is an authentic example of community engagement as our brackets are blown among friends, neighbors, parents, and children. This is a great opportunity as parents to start the discussion around completing a college degree. 

Frankly, getting in is not that hard, unless you are looking for admission to only highly selective institutions.  Using the most recent data available to us from the Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA, 75.7% of college freshman were accepted into their first choice institution.[1]  Indeed, the vast majority of high school graduates are accepted into at least one post-secondary institution. 

However, getting through college is challenging.  Currently, only 60% of students who begin a four year degree program graduate in six years or 150% of institution defined time.[2]  Finishing a bachelor’s degree in 100% of institution defined time or four years is even harder.  The most current data shows that only 36-38% of students graduate within four years when pursuing a four year degree.

Essentially, college completion is no lay-up.  If we want our children to graduate in 100% of institution defined time, we need take them “out to driveway” and start working on those skills, behaviors, and knowledge domains that research shows is at the heart of college success. 

As a father and as the Chief Academic Officer at Envision, I think about this a lot – we have an opportunity to help students explore their passions and build a path to a future career.  There are lots of ways to help students discover what they are good at and what they want to do with their lives. I feel fortunate to work for a company that is a player in that space.